Today’s previews of new, graphically impressive titles which seem to feature sophisticated gameplay go a long way towards substantiating the potential depth of the iPhone as a gaming platform.

The continuing, rapid advance of both hardware and software platforms for mobile computing really do seem to be leading gaming in interesting directions.  It's only a matter of time before a mobile device has as much memory and storage as a console, leaving rich gaming applications limited by other things such as bandwidth (oh, wait, 3G / 3.5G / 4G / WiFi is making that less of an issue too) and screen resolution.  160GB iPod Touch already have 128MB RAM, or 1/4 of the Wii's 512MB Flash, and the 160 GB iPod can store 3 Blu-ray DVDs.  And it's not just about storage: WiMax can deliver almost 100 MB/s; 4G technically 24 MB/s.  An 8x DVD transfers at about 10 MB/s. 

I know I'm oversimplifying the technical requirements here, as well as the interplay between RAM, transfer speeds, chip speeds, as well as firmware and software considerations.  But it's really about this: what will games look like we didn't need local storage at all and it was all available through the cloud?  And at reduced latencies than today's high-end consoles or juiced-up PCs? 

"The use of BCI technology represents a potential breakthrough in human-machine interfaces, changing the realm of possibilities not only for games, but in the way that humans and computers interact. As interactions in virtual environments become more complex, mice and keyboards alone may soon be inadequate. BCI is an important component of the 3D Internet and the future of virtual communication," said Paul Ledak, vice president of IBM digital convergence, in a statement issued by Emotiv.

I saw the headset in use at CES and I have to say it's very cool and a little creepy.  Tickle wires don't seem that far behind.

The 1 Billion figure seems high, as other sources have estimated TOTAL broadband penetration worldwide to be 1 billion people by 2011, which would make it a stretch for 5 billion by 2018 (even if Wi-Max and 3G are fully deployed by then).   But even if the total penetration rate were being overestimated, the active user number might not be: if the 3-D Internet is going to be a reality, then wouldn't it be a reality for work as well as for play?  Meaning as collaboration moves away from single-sense (e-mail vs. teleconference vs. webcast vs. IM vs. twitter…) to multi-sense immersive collaborative experiences, the actual market for virtual world services will be larger than $8B/year by 2018?

I unfortunately missed the actual panel so I'm flying a little blind here.  I agree with some of the presentation, especially around the continued evolution towards online distribution and multiple business models.  But I think there's a whiff of "buzzword-itis", too.  Real changes will be evolutionary, with Web 2.0 tools and techniques subject to the same Darwinian pressures as other business or artistic endeavors: what actually generates real shareholder returns?  If it doesn't enhance the gaming experience (and therefore increases revenues) and/or improves productivity (and therefore reduces costs), then ultimately game developers won't use it.  And it's not just "games learning from Web 2.0" — the reverse is just as true, as games, especially online games, already been experimenting with online social networking at least since the days of the earliest MMORPGs and MUDs.

 Two items in particular grabbed my attention recently: the large opening of Grand Theft Auto IV, and the growth of the videogame sector results not in gains but stock losses.

So the opening weekend of GTA-IV was gangbusters as expected, with Take-2 using the launch as an excuse to chat themselves into higher valuations as they continue to fight off Electronic Arts.  The $500 million first week global sales figure (as reported by The Hollywood Reporter on May 8) was claimed to be "the largest interactive entertainment launch ever".  Whether such a comparison can be made on an apples-to-apples comparison, the fact is the blockbuster nature of the games business was given an added reinforcement by this launch.  I'm not savvy enough to know if that will change the EA/Take-2 equation, but I can guess that will only add pressure to established publishers to buy into the blockbuster mentality, for good or ill.  Whither independents and low-budget casual games?

Perhaps the next story might shed light there.  Despite the blockbuster, Take-Two shares still dropped 1% per The Hollywood Reporter on May 19.  That wasn't what caught my eye.  What did was the article's mention of another strong showing for the Wii (another 714,000 in April, twice the combined rate of XBox360 + PS3), even before the availability of Wii Fit, or WiiWare.

That to me says that even with a blockbuster trend, the overall games market continues an evolution towards a more complex ecosystem, serving broader (blockbusters) AND more niche audiences (independents…just read Chris Remo's April 15 op-ed on WiiWare in gamasutra for one viewpoint).

Here's a sampling of just some of the most recent stories.  A lot of reporting around the A/B merger, of course.  Another trend seems to be around the continued expansion of the gaming audience, whether new demographic audiences or serious games.

(apologies - my editing status in WordPress still precludes things like hotlinks, trying to figure out the technical difficulty) 

Businessweek Apr 28: "Tool: Training Games" - Microsoft's ESP toolset for serious games is profiled in a short blurb. –>  

Businessweek Apr 28: "Opening the Wii to wee game developers" - talks about the shift in Nintendo's strategy away from tight developer control to more open development and smaller studios. –> http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_17/b4081070887317.htm?chan=search

Businessweek April 21: "In Hot Pursuit of a video-game deal" - mostly about the EA/Take 2 battle. –> http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_16/b4080028214708.htm?chan=search 

Businessweek Games blog Apr 17 (and Apr 28 issue): "Numbers: Video Games: Not just child's play".  Numbers on the growth and changing demographics of the industry.  –> http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/gamesinc/archives/2008/04/gaming_by_numbe.html 

THR Apr 17: "Mainland MMO" - World of Warcraft hits a new high in Mainland China, with 25% increase in peak concurrent users since Oct 4.

Fortune April 14: "Guess who's rewriting the Rules of Gaming?" - lead article in the Technology section, talks about the changing (and growing) demographics of game users, and postulates disruption for large established publishers in favor of smaller developers , social MMOs (Nexon), and, all all places, Target.  Interestingly, it reminded me of the panel back at GDC where Min Kim from Nexon speaker basically smacked down Jack Emmert from Cryptic.  –>  http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/16/technology/leonard_games.fortune/index.htm and http://gametomorrow.com/blog/index.php/2008/02/21/ibm-at-gdc-part-3-the-future-of-mmos/

THR Apri 8: "Game on: Dis plays in China" - Disney plans to buy Gamestar, the China-based games developer. (subscription required) –> http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3iec476757724b75704f7105b606e4949f 

Businessweek Apr 7: "The Power of Play", an entire online special report on the Games industry.  This one warrants a separate blog post. –> http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/di_special/20080324thepowerof.htm 

THR Apr 1: "It's March madness for vid gamers" - more good news on the story of games being "recession proof": "…In February, software sales were up 47% year-over-year while hardware sales were up 19%, research firm NPD said." –> http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3if3e739fe43eee9a1f7697a32819d3886

THR Apr 1: "Ubisoft ups '08 forecast" - ditto on the recession-proof storyline. –> http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3i37a2ec580927b4288e7ce119d5539aef

THR Mar 27: "Game guards" - small blurb about UK proposal to require health warnings on violent games a la cigarettes.  And here we thought Margret Thatcher abolished the Nanny State… 

THR Mar 25: "DHX Shapes Up" - acqusition featuring kids gaming and fitness –> http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3i5a42e7f03a5c48fc2d3a91adfb456738

THR Mar 24: "Electronic Arts, Starz race to 'Space' movie" - extending the existing 'Dead Space' game franchise into an animated feature.  (subscription required) –> http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3ifcdf91a54bfcc659fd41daa658a0f164

THR Mar 20: "Points slow to come in EA game" - amid an article on the EA/Take-2 takeover battle, a nugget from the NPD Group: "…with NPD Group figures released this week citing February sales of Hardware and software at $1.3 billion, 34% higher than the same month a year ago."  –> http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3idcdfd6551bebb6397f67ac6da248aa5b

THR Mar 19: "GameStop Gains" - gamestop's 46% increase in fiscal 4Q profits 

The first, from April 10, writes about how Nickelodeon is developing two casual MMOs. The first a virtual world based on SpongeBob SquarePants, and the second called Monkey World.

The second, from April 17, writes about Cartoon Network prepping it's own casual MMO for this fall, after being delayed twice. This on the heel's of Disney's original property Toontown and their purchase of Club Penguin in 2007.

Is this a trend?

"When we started building 'FusionFall,' 'Toontown' was the only kids MMO," notes [Chris Waldron, the game's executive producer]. "Since then, we've seen a proliferation of MMOs targeting the same young demographic as ours, including 'Pirates of the Caribbean,' 'RuneScape,' and even social games like 'Club Penguin' and 'Habbo Hotel.' So, yeah, it's getting crowded out there and there are many more in the works so it's getting even more crowded."

http://www.ibm.com/developerworks/blogs/page/rawn

'…In a real-world military system, leaders assume that teamwork is a given. They never had to face the idea of a "democratically-organized" army as in an MMOG. That is a much harder proposal in terms of setting up teamwork. '

Money quote:

"…The old industry formula for success was simple: license a popular movie or sports title and then crank out slightly updated versions of Madden NFL or James Bond year after year. But that approach, developed in large part by EA, isn't working now. Sales are flagging, and gamers are losing interest…"

The missed point is that this is Electronic Arts being caught in its own success of turning a key licensed franchises into ongoing blockbusters. As Hollywood only too well knows, going down the sequel path might lead to good revenues in the short term but wears out the audience pretty quick. This isn't the entire industry - just look at the MMO chart I linked to a few days ago. It's the business press taking the easy story of extrapolating the travails of the 800-pound gorilla as a cypher for the entire industry.

EA's hostile bid for Take-2 Interactive is another interesting angle that could have been covered.  If you're quoting John Riccitiello (EA's Chief Executive) as saying "I am just stomping down on the boring sequel idea…", then why didn't the authors question how the takeover bid might be reinforcing EA's old model of buying/extending existing IP vs. directing investments towards new IP projects like Dead Space?

The better story would have asked that question.  Or have interviewed any of the attendees at last year's Hollywood and Games conference. Cross-pollination is old news; Star Trek and McDonalds were doing that in the 70s with the Klingon Happy Meal. The new news is how technology and social media are changing how IP from one media is stretched and morphed into new channels that take full advantage of that new media's unique capabilities while still retaining enough elements from the initial creative outlet that it's recognizable to the audience. And how the traditional sequential release windows ("first film, then game, then sequel film, then game…") are turning into simultaneous AND asynchronous multiple experiences that allow a single franchise to engage different audiences they way they want to be engaged.  That would have been a far more interesting story to me.

Maybe that's why I liked the book "Convergence Culture" by Henry Jenkins so much. 

Here's just one example: what about a look at how content owners are stretching the boundaries of what games really mean? Rather than a rehash of yet another deal to turn a film into a game (or vice versa), why not look at how ABC solidified it's Lost franchise with an Alternate Reality Game like The Lost Experience?

World of Warcraft, to no great surprise, continues to dominate, but others are starting to appear, notably Tabula Rasa (http://www.rgtr.com/index.html), Lord of the Rings Online (http://www.lotro.com/), and Vanguard: Saga of Heroes (http://vgplayers.station.sony.com/).  Which means the Fantasy RPG is still the dominant theme.  I wonder how that will all change when the long, long, loooooong-awaited Spore (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spore_(video_game)) finally arrives later this summer.