Virtual Worlds to grow to 1 Billion users?

Blogged under MMOG, online gaming, games, Industry News by Jacques Pavlenyi on Thursday 5 June 2008 at 5:48 pm

There's a new study from Strategy Analytics predicting massive growth in online virtual world participation over the net 10 years.  The basis of the study seems to be an assumption that a little over 20% of broadband users worldwide will register for a virtual world, but only about 6% will be "active users".

The 1 Billion figure seems high, as other sources have estimated TOTAL broadband penetration worldwide to be 1 billion people by 2011, which would make it a stretch for 5 billion by 2018 (even if Wi-Max and 3G are fully deployed by then).   But even if the total penetration rate were being overestimated, the active user number might not be: if the 3-D Internet is going to be a reality, then wouldn't it be a reality for work as well as for play?  Meaning as collaboration moves away from single-sense (e-mail vs. teleconference vs. webcast vs. IM vs. twitter…) to multi-sense immersive collaborative experiences, the actual market for virtual world services will be larger than $8B/year by 2018?

SpongeBob SquareGame

Blogged under MMOG, games, Industry News by Jacques Pavlenyi on Friday 18 April 2008 at 12:09 pm

Continuing the trend of expanding MMOs and online social environments to broader audiences, comes two stories from The Hollywood Reporter.

The first, from April 10, writes about how Nickelodeon is developing two casual MMOs. The first a virtual world based on SpongeBob SquarePants, and the second called Monkey World.

The second, from April 17, writes about Cartoon Network prepping it's own casual MMO for this fall, after being delayed twice. This on the heel's of Disney's original property Toontown and their purchase of Club Penguin in 2007.

Is this a trend?

"When we started building 'FusionFall,' 'Toontown' was the only kids MMO," notes [Chris Waldron, the game's executive producer]. "Since then, we've seen a proliferation of MMOs targeting the same young demographic as ours, including 'Pirates of the Caribbean,' 'RuneScape,' and even social games like 'Club Penguin' and 'Habbo Hotel.' So, yeah, it's getting crowded out there and there are many more in the works so it's getting even more crowded."

 

MMOGCHART guy is back - and the news is still good

Blogged under MMOG, online gaming, games by Jacques Pavlenyi on Thursday 20 March 2008 at 11:31 am

After an over-1-year-hiatus, Bruce Woodcock (http://www.linkedin.com/in/brucewoodcock - sorry, my editor is still on the fritz with hotlinks…) is back with an updated MMOGCHART (http://www.mmogchart.com/).  And for those who thought the exponential growth in MMOG subscriptions was not sustainable, well, the data shows that at least in the short term is still very much is.  Over 2007, total worldwide active subscriptions grew from around 14,000,000 to 16,000,000 (up 14%).  

World of Warcraft, to no great surprise, continues to dominate, but others are starting to appear, notably Tabula Rasa (http://www.rgtr.com/index.html), Lord of the Rings Online (http://www.lotro.com/), and Vanguard: Saga of Heroes (http://vgplayers.station.sony.com/).  Which means the Fantasy RPG is still the dominant theme.  I wonder how that will all change when the long, long, loooooong-awaited Spore (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spore_(video_game)) finally arrives later this summer.

IBM at GDC - Thu Part 1: Kurtzweil keynote

Blogged under MMOG, online gaming, games, Industry News, Events by Jacques Pavlenyi on Thursday 21 February 2008 at 6:52 pm

Still trying to figure out why none of the HTML functions are working for me, so apologies for the text-only posting. 

Today was supposed to start with a Macrovision session on digital distribution, but the speaker never showed, so it was quality time with my coffee and Starbuck's Yogurt Parfait instead.

I next managed to get a seat at the jam-packed Ray Kurtzweil keynote address.  Last time I was in that room was for the Direct Marketing Association's 2007 show which had Richard Branson (of Virgin fame) as the speaker.  He's a very low-key, almost deadpan, public speaker but the audience was still very much entranced with this clearly brilliant mind.  He has a  gift for the understated joking aside, starting with his opening about how "games" in an unfortunate name for the industry given it's real value (a telephone conversation is "virtual", but does that make a verbal agreement over the phone any less real than one in person?  Of course not…so why do we treat games and virtual world interactions differently?")

To set up the topic, what was Games: The Next 20 years, he took a look back.  He observed that 95% of innovative projects fail because their timing is off.  One reason for that off timing is that growth is exponential, not linear, and our thinking processes are based on linear evolution ("there's something in the corner of my coming towards a certain spot…it'll get there in 20 seconds and I better not be in that spot…this is good for cavemen, not for us").  When we look at innovation and pace of change as an exponential function, the overall paradigm shifts become relatively easy to predict.  He then showed plenty of examples: over the past 40 years there's been a billion-fold increase in computing price/performance.  And that pace is accellerating: there will be another billion-fold improvement over the next 25 years.

The result is a democratizing of communications, tools of creation, and tools of production.  Example: his own Kurtzweil Reading Maching for the blind, in 1979 was the size of a washing machine.  You now have a much more powerful version on a smart phone.

So what's the implication for Games?  Well, if it takes >6months to design a game, you need to design it for where the technology/market WILL BE, not where it is now, otherwise it'll be obsolete by the time it gets launched.  Things like computing devices disappear by 2020, replaced by embedded computing in eyeglasses, clothing, mobile devices, etc.  

Definitely lots of food for thought, and not even sure what that means yet.   One of those thinking exercises perfect for quality time with a coffee and yogurt parfait.

Want to run a game on Big Iron?

Blogged under Cell, MMOG, Industry News by David Berger on Thursday 26 April 2007 at 7:59 am

So, what do you get when you cross a Cell processor with an industry-leading mainframe system?

 The answer is a whole bunch of "wow."

 No doubt we'll be talking lots more about the "gameframe."  And keep an eye on our friends at the Mainframe blog for more.  

 

A gamer speaks out on MMO addiction

Blogged under MMOG, online gaming, Higher Education by Craig Dore on Tuesday 20 February 2007 at 10:48 pm

TotalBiscuit, aka John Bain, a confessed Warcraft geek, speaks out on the supposed phenomenon of MMO addiction at The University of Advancing Technology TechForum 2006. The original video link is here.

Warning : contains some harsh language but is generally worksafe.

Security expert weighs in on game security

Blogged under MMOG, online gaming, Industry News by Craig Dore on Monday 4 December 2006 at 11:23 am

Interview with Steve Davis by Craig Dore

 

I had the opportunity to sit down (virtually) with Steve Davis, CEO of IT GlobalSecure, a software publisher and consultant for security issues specific to the gaming industry. His company develops “SecurePlay“, a security middleware toolkit for online games. IT GlobalSecure is currently working to elevate awareness by unveiling a course covering the whole range of business and technical issues related to game security.

 

Your blog tracks the proliferation of exploits and vulnerabilities in the gaming world. Have you quantified any loose trends in your survey that you could share?

 

I have been tracking game security incidents since the late 1990’s. At that time there were usually a half dozen incidents per year. By 2004, the pace was up to about one per month. In 2005, there as about one incident every two weeks. This year (2006), I have said the pace was about one per week. This is actually very conservative. The pace is closer to an average 2-3/week. Part of this apparent increase is attributable to my closer monitoring since I started my blog, so one per week is a good/bad-enough number.

Methodology - My threshold for an “incident” is something that is announced via a press release, a regular news article, or a major online site. Occasionally, I’ll pick up something smaller if I find it particularly interesting or informative. I do not go hunting into warez or hacking sites to find attacks though I will use borderline hacker sites if they provide useful details on the nature of the attacks (usually, I find these sites via major online sites as their reference for the story).

 

Seeing as how there are more online services available, this increase isn’t particularly surprising. Can you draw any conclusions about the most prominent type of attack, or perhaps characterize the most typical of targets?

 

Actually, the growth of the problem is pretty impressive, at least to me. Publicly disclosed incidents have been doubling every year for the past several years. The problems have been spreading across the board. The most surprising, and disappointing, is the number of code compromise incidents. This is one of the most damaging problems and probably the easiest to fix. I am most interested in the areas where we haven’t been hearing much: casual games, tournament games, and, of course, online gambling. Serious cheaters are going to “follow the money” as they do everywhere else.

 

By code compromise, you mean hacking of the game client, right? How can this be easily prevented?

 

No, by code compromise I mean the disclosure of the game’s source code base. Typically, these losses have been by the game developer, though publishers have been guilty as well. It is a failure of basic IT security. Game code and raw art assets can be worth hundreds of millions of dollars or more (or less). They should be protected appropriately during the development and publication process.

 

What are your thoughts on the emphasis on security in the game industry, today?

 

“Generally speaking, game publishers own the security problem in this industry. This has serious implications. Developers are compensated for delivering a product on-time and typically get the bulk of their compensation for completing the game on-time. Therefore, they do not have real incentives for good security design or practices unless such incentives are written into their contracts Also, because game publishers still see themselves in the “publishing” business where most revenues are earned in the first 30 days after a product release as opposed to a longer sales and services cycle, they have allocated security into the QA or distribution side of the business where there is little power or incentive to address security strategically.

“This leaves out some great revenue “tails” – tournaments and other “secondary” markets for games could extend their shelf-life by adding more traditional sales and open up additional revenues from licensing and royalties.

“There are a lot of ways that good security can grow revenues, not just try to protect against loses.

 

Are middleware vendors indifferent to security? How many breaches, how much downtime, how many lost users and revenue will it take?

 

“The middleware guys haven’t focused on security because the developers and publishers are still struggling with the decision to use middleware at all. As the middleware market matures and game publishers really come to terms with the opportunities and implications of online play, security should become more clearly important.

“People have been telling me for years that the game industry needs a “Pearl Harbor” incident. Part of my motivation for writing my blog is to show that, while Pearl Harbor hasn’t happened, the industry has experienced a number of Dunkirks, Polands, and North Africas.

 

Based on your observations, what is your general appraisal of security amongst the MMORPG developers, themselves?

 

“Security is being taken more and more seriously by MMOs once they are in operation. After all, this is where security failures cost real money. I am not so sure about MMOs in development. It is much easier to change PowerPoint slides and specifications than a running game service. However, the development team is not typically rewarded for good security. They are paid to get a game out the door as quickly as possible. Even worse, they are often not the guys who are stuck with the security problems once the game is in the field. This is the same problem faced by other types of games as well as other software services with a security component. It is hard to make developers accountable for security.

 

What are the “wins” that we’ve seen towards security with respect to online gaming? What are the success stories that you feel should be told here?

 

“Even Balance has been doing a great job in the US with PunkBuster. It may not be what you or I would consider the “right” solution from a security purist perspective, but they have raised awareness of the issue. In some sense, their model is perfectly suited to the way the industry thinks about security. Hopefully, publishers will start looking at their PunkBuster budget and consider if there is a better way. There are similar stories in Asia with nProtect’s GameGuard and AhnLab’s HackShield.

“There has also been some interesting data out of Korea from NCSoft. According to some public articles, they spend 10 billion Won (out of 350 Billion Won in revenues) on security. This doesn’t include the marketing costs associated with lost customers (I don’t know if it includes customer service costs for security related incidents either).

 

Finally, what is the most important thing that MMORPG developers and middleware developers can do to increase the security of their offerings?

 

“The biggest thing developers can do is to begin to consider security in their designs from day one. There aren’t any magic bullets, just good engineering and business strategy.

 

Thanks very much for your time!

 

“My pleasure.”

 

For interested readers, a related discussion took place in early October over at covertcreations. The article is titled, ‘MMORPGs, Security and the Grand Promise of Middleware’.

 

Technorati tags : games security, , , ,

IBM and Virtual Worlds

Blogged under MMOG by Andy Piper on Thursday 30 November 2006 at 5:10 pm

Over on the eightbar blog, there’s coverage of an event that was held today at IBM Bedfont in the UK and also, in parallel, within the Second Life environment.

Part of the day included a “think tank” session debating the future of Virtual Worlds.

It was fascinating stuff - an opportunity to discuss a range of topics from the underlying technology, to some of the social implications. This all dovetails neatly into the stuff that is being talked about on ibm.com at the moment.

Greater IBM bloc party

Blogged under MMOG by Andy Piper on Wednesday 11 October 2006 at 12:14 pm

IBM recently launched a social networking initiative aimed at connecting up existing IBMers, and former IBM employees (”IBM alumni”). The initiative is called Greater IBM. There’s a blog if you are interested in learning more. Currently the network is organised around a group on the OpenBC network… OpenBC itself is changing to become Xing in the near future.

Tomorrow, there’s going to be a Greater IBM “bloc party” in Second Life. We recently held a very successful 3D Jam in SL internally, and we also held a press conference last month discussing some of the cool stuff that we’ve been involved with in SL. If you follow the eightbar blog, you might be aware of some of what we’ve been up to already…

From eightbar to Slashdot

Blogged under MMOG by Andy Piper on Tuesday 3 October 2006 at 2:48 am

Roo Reynolds, one of the very cool Emerging Technology guys from IBM Hursley (also one of IBM’s Metaverse Evangelists), recently posted on the eightbar blog about his SketchUp to Second Life exporting script. Along with others in the team, he’s been looking at ways to build objects more easily using simple desktop tools, rather than creating things entirely in-world.

The story propagated to the usual Second Life-related sources like 3pointD and Second Life Insider (Roo has been keeping a list). Now, it finally made Slashdot.

Incidentally, this is another demonstration of how IBM is taking a serious look at MMO environments and how they can be useful in a business context. Some of the objects that we might want to build to support business events could be easier to create using desktop 3D modelling tools initially.

IBM brings Eve-Online to new heights

Blogged under MMOG, online gaming, Industry News by Craig Dore on Friday 15 September 2006 at 1:30 am

A cluster of IBM BladeCenter LS20s provides the heartbeat of CCP’s popular MMO, EVE Online. With no sharding, and a solid state storage array that serves a database processing over 150 million entries daily, it’s no surprise that EVE has finally broken the 30,000 concurrent user barrier.

Via Softpedia :

“CEO Hilmar Veigar Pétursson’s thoughts on the subject: The sharp growth rate of EVE Online was pushing the limits of the technology we replaced. Our goal was to implement a scalable solution that could accommodate the influx of new subscribers and gracefully manage the steadily increasing demand put on our infrastructure. IBM provided us with optimized hardware that improved overall game performance and increased capacity, especially during peak server usage timeframes.”

Technorati tags : , CCP

More Second Life in the mainstream press

Blogged under MMOG by Andy Piper on Monday 31 July 2006 at 2:28 am

This Saturday, The Times - the newspaper of record in the UK - ran a 2 page spread on Second Life (online version here). This was in the main newspaper, not in the magazine or one of the other weekend supplements. Nothing stunningly new in the coverage… again talking about real people making real money through SL (Anshe Cheung always seems to get a mention in these pieces), how easy it is to get started, the various subcultures you might encounter (with the usual health warnings). The message was very much, “this could be the next big thing”. Well, if it is, I’m glad that I’m involved already…

Striking that I seem to encounter SL in so many places in Real Life now. This is just yet another example of the mainstream media paying attention.

The Second Life Insider blog has its own coverage of the article.

Second Life press coverage

Blogged under MMOG by Andy Piper on Monday 10 July 2006 at 3:03 am

Richard Brown has spotted some press coverage of Second Life in The Observer newspaper in the UK. A couple of months ago, it made the cover of Business Week.

MMO is rapidly gaining ground from a business perspective, as you’ll see if you take a look at what the eightbar group have been up to.

Second Life new Terms of Service

Blogged under MMOG, online gaming, NetGames by Andy Piper on Thursday 29 June 2006 at 11:01 am

Linden Labs put out version 1.10.5 of Second Life yesterday [release notes]. After the upgrade, the first time I logged in (actually the first 2 times I logged in, weirdly) I was prompted to accept a rather long new Terms of Service agreement.

VTOR has some commentary on the the ToS (along with some biting remarks on the scalability and stability of the platform), and NWN has commentary on another of the changes in the new version - the fact that you can now see whether a user is a paying customer in their profile.

It’s a long ToS and I’ve not analysed it in detail to work out whether the changes significantly impact my activities playing around with LSL and random objects I might choose to create. Comments?

There’s another new change, which is that LL have increased the number of categories of place types - see this forum post.

Blogged under MMOG, online gaming, games, Industry News, NetGames by Catherine Helzerman on Sunday 18 June 2006 at 3:08 pm

Irving Wladawsky-Berger has a great post in his blog this week about “life and business in the virtual world”.

“Finally, with IT all around us, it is very important that we leverage all that powerful and inexpensive computing power so that future applications will be much more human-like, realistic and “immersive.”  We see this future emerging most clearly with computer and video games, especially with the new generation of game consoles like the Xbox and PlayStation 3, as well as with massively multiplayer online environments like Second Life and World of Warcraft.   “

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Guild holds Wow server hostage

Blogged under MMOG, online gaming, Industry News by Catherine Helzerman on Monday 20 February 2006 at 12:20 pm

Thanks to IBMer Noah Kuttler for passing along this story posted on Kotaku.

Terrorist Guild Holds WoW Server Hostage

The Imperial Order, a World of Warcraft guild on the Detheroc server, is holding the server hostage. The guild has completed the various quests needed to obtain a septer used to ring a gong. Ringing the gong will open the gates giving everyone on the server access to new content, but the guild refuses to do it. At least, they refuse to do it until someone pays them 5,000 gold.

They say they’d rather be known as the obnoxious guild that held their server hostage than forgotten as the kind guild that opened new content.

Nobody remembers the fair and quietly intelligent people we meet in their daily lives, but everyone remembers those who ruin their day.

We’ll have plenty of time to conquer this new content, but for now we see an endless novelty in holding it hostage. And this is what we will continue to do: Hold it hostage.

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The WoW family

Blogged under MMOG, online gaming by Catherine Helzerman on Friday 6 January 2006 at 11:33 pm

We’ve done some talking on this blog about virtual communities and people coming together in mmog environments. Here’s an interesting twist that speaks to that point, but is also shows that online communities can be venues for communication with our friends and family IRL (in real life).

Recently, a whole family joined a WoW guild, The Clockwork Crew (server, Hyjal)
Here’s the post (quoted with their permission) that was made on the Clockwork Crew forum.

ME: I’m a 31 (almost 32!) year old gal in Ontario. I’ve been playing WoW for about a year now. I have characters on 4 or 5 realms, but I seem to like this one best…all my buds are here! Before WoW, I played Diablo 2, which was cool for its day, but has NOTHING on WoW. I have 2 children whose interest has been piqued by my game play (see below).

SON: My son is 9, and has 3 characters on WoW. Only one is on Hyjal, but he has recently become a member of our fine guild…Lightcharger. If you see him about, please remember the following:
1. He’s 9, so his typing/convo skills are lacking
2. He doesn’t play too often, so he doesn’t have mad skills like his mommy
3. He’s mine, so if you have a chance to lend him a hand with his playing, please feel free to do so. Don’t worry about sending him money & items…I make sure he has enough to get by.

DAUGHTER: My daughter is 11 (almost 12). She has 2 characters on WoW, but none on Hyjal. She doesn’t play very often anymore. Her current interests include boys, friends, boys, shopping, boys, reading, boys, hanging at the mall, and don’t forget…boys.

EX-HUBBY: Sacralidge. Need I say more?

STEP-DAUGHTER: She plays a couple of characters, but none on Hyjal.

Kallie/Phoeb/Shadowlilly/Annarchy/Pandamonium (GOOD LORD!)

IBM’s Resident Professional Gamer Talks Gaming

Blogged under MMOG, online gaming, games, Industry News by Catherine Helzerman on Wednesday 28 December 2005 at 12:01 am

With IBM currently leading the video game industry in processor development, it makes sense that they also have professional gamers in their ranks. IBMer Carlos “Johnny” Lopez II talks with Game Tomorrow about his move to professional gaming (and recent win in the Electronic Arts $250k Battlefield: Modern Combat tournament!), and his career with IBM.

Read the whole interview here.

For future reference, interviews can be found on the front page of this blog by clicking on links under Pages on the right sidebar.

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Podcast on the future of online games

Blogged under MMOG by Catherine Helzerman on Wednesday 21 December 2005 at 5:45 pm

We’ve just uploaded a new podcast, “IBM and the future of online games” which can be accessed on our investor website. It is the seventh in a series called “IBM and the future of…” This podcast explores the economic and social significance of the growth in MMOG communities where hundreds of thousands of people interact, at the same time, in immersive, virtual environments.

Increasingly, these communities are not just interacting with each other for entertainment, but to form social bonds, buy and sell virtual artifacts and property, educate and learn from each other and perform many of the other interactions that happen in the real world. The technologies that allow this interaction to happen could represent the future of the Internet.

The podcast is hosted by Nick Jacobs and features a discussion between Quentin Staes-Polet, head of IBM’s online game practice in Asia Pacific, and Joey Alarilla, president of the Asian Gaming Journalists Association and editor of www.hackenslash.net.

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MMOG podcast now available

Blogged under MMOG by Catherine Helzerman on Monday 12 December 2005 at 11:28 am

The MMOG Live Interactive Web Seminar 2 event recording is now available for on demand replay here www.westcast-systems.com/ibm/event/vod.html also available as a 4-part podcast. On the podcast, four key speakers converse about the online games industry and technology today. Richard Garriott from NCSoft Austin and David Laux from IBM talk about “Creating New IP in the MMP Space”; Adam Joffe from SONY Online Entertainment and Ben Bloch from IBM discuss “Launching and Operating MMOGs - Insights from SONY Online’s experience”; Robert Spencer from BigWorld Pty and Greg Melloy from IBM discuss “Scalability”, and Steven L. Canepa and Patty Fry from IBM discuss “How Technology is Changing the Online Games Industry”. Each of the four sessions is also moderated by Julien Merceron from Ubisoft, along with Marcel Baron and Sheena Stewart from IBM.

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